A Research Proposal on Impact of Load Shedding in Bangladesh

1. Abstract:

Load shedding is the term used to describe the deliberate switching off of electrical supply to parts of the electricity network, and hence to the customers in those areas. This practice is rare, but is a core
part of the emergency management of all electricity networks.
Load shedding can be required when there is an imbalance between electricity demand (customers’ usage) and electricity supply (the ability of the electricity network to generate and transport the required amount of electricity to meet this demand).

When there is a shortfall in the electricity supply, there can be a need to reduce demand very quickly to an acceptable level, or risk the entire electricity network becoming unstable and shutting down completely. This is known as a “cascade” event, and can end in a total or widespread network shutdown affecting very large areas of a country. Load shedding normally happens in two ways:

Automatic Load Shedding: This is a result of concurrent failures of major element(s) in the national grid (e.g. co-incidental generator or key transmission line failures), resulting in protection schemes initiating the automatic isolation of additional parts of the national grid, to protect the entire grid from cascading to a total blackout. Automatic load shedding always occurs on the transmission system level, with the result being large amounts of electricity and large blocks of customers taken off supply in a very short time. Typical load reduction amounts can be in the order of 1000MW – 2000MW, affecting hundreds of thousands of customers.

 Manual (Selective) Load Shedding: This occurs where time is available (typically up to 60mins) to make selective choices on what customers are shed. Selective load shedding often occurs on the distribution system level, and typically requires medium to small amounts of electricity to be “shed” in a short time. Typical load reduction amounts can be in the order of 50MW – 100MW, affecting tens of thousands of customers at a time. If required, manual load shedding can also occur at the sub-transmission level, resulting in large blocks of customers being shed with little to no discrimination between customer types. This situation is invoked when a large amount of electricity (500MW – 2000MW) is required to be shed in a timeframe of typically 1mins to 15mins, often under emergency conditions.

The priority assessment for selective load shedding is based on guidelines which have been ratified by the Bangladesh Government & BPDB.

As a guide, feeders that supply major hospitals, mental health care institutions, remand centers, sewerage and water pumping stations, industries requiring continuous supply, major public transport supplies, and traffic lights at major intersections, airports and high rise buildings will have a higher priority compared to feeders that have a predominantly residential, commercial or other industrial customer mix. 

2. Literature Review:

Electricity sector in Bangladesh

Bangladesh's energy infrastructure is quite small, insufficient and poorly managed. The per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is one of the lowest (136 kWh) in the world. Noncommercial energy sources, such as wood, animal wastes, and crop residues, are estimated to account for over half of the country's energy consumption. Bangladesh has small reserves of oil and coal, but very large natural gas resources. Commercial energy consumption is mostly natural gas (around 66%), followed by oil, hydropower and coal.

Electricity is the major source of power for country's most of the economic activities. Bangladesh's installed electric generation capacity was 4.7 GW in 2009; only three-fourth of which is considered to be ‘available’. Only 40% of the population has access to electricity with a per capita availability of 136 kWh per annum. Problems in the Bangladesh's electric power sector include corruption in administration, high system losses, and delays in completion of new plants, low plant efficiencies, erratic power supply, electricity theft, blackouts, and shortages of funds for power plant maintenance. Overall, the country's generation plants have been unable to meet system demand over the past decade.

In generating and distributing electricity, the failure to adequately manage the load leads to extensive load shedding which results in severe disruption in the industrial production and other economic activities. A recent survey reveals that power outages result in a loss of industrial output worth $1 billion a year which reduces the GDP growth by about half a percentage point in Bangladesh. A major hurdle in efficiently delivering power is caused by the inefficient distribution system. It is estimated that the total transmission and distribution losses in Bangladesh amount to one-third of the total generation, the value of which is equal to US $247 million per year.

Renewable Energy: Bangladesh has 15 MW solar energy capacities through rural households and 1.9 MW wind power in Kutubdia and Feni. Bangladesh has planned to increase renewable energy 450 MW by 2015 and 1600 MW by 2020.

Recent Plans: The Ministry of Power and Energy has been mobilizing Tk 40,000 crore ($5.88 billion) to generate 5,000 MW of electricity to reduce load shedding into a tolerable level within next four and half years during the term of the present government. Under the plan, the Power Development Board (PDB) had produced 500 MW gas-fired electricity between July and December, 2009 to over come load shedding within December. The PDB had hired furnace-oil based 1,000MW of electricity from private sector from January to June 2010. In 2011, the government would install furnace-oil based 800 MW capacity of power plant. The PDB officials would seek suitable place to establish the plant, a senior official of the PDB said. Besides the government would also hire another diesel or furnace oil based power plant having capacity of 700 MW in 2012 to keep load shedding into mild level, the official said. However, the government also contemplates to establish four coal-fired based power plants with capacity of producing 500 MW of electricity each with public and private partnership (PPP) in Rajshahi and Chittagong region. The government has initially tried to create fund of Tk 6,000 crore to implement the plan, sources said. The power division has tried to utilize the government's budgetary allocation of Tk. 2000 crore for PPP in this regard, sources added. "If we can create the fund of Tk. 6,000 crore, it would be possible also to mobilize Tk 40,000 crore under PPP to produce 5,000 MW f electricity within four and half years," PDB chairman ASM Alamgir Kabir told the New Nation on  June 29, 2010. During the meeting, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina permitted the power division to implement the PDB plan to reduce load shedding up to a tolerable level.

Nuclear Power Plant: Bangladesh plans to set up the 1,000 MW power plant at Rooppur, 200 km (125 miles) northwest of the capital Dhaka, by 2011.

3. Objectives

The overall objective of the research is to collect socio-economic data from the selected areas in order to use them in and impact studies. The specific objectives of the survey will be to collect data relating to the following variables:

1.      Age & Gender

2.      Educational Qualification

3.      Occupation: Businessmen, Jobholder, Household, Student

4.      Location

5.      Income level

The specific objectives are -

> Experience of load shedding

> Hours of load shedding and frequencies

> Bearable hours

> Adopted for alternatives

> Affected with respect to time and season

> Affected activities

> Solutions taken at personal/ household level

> Degree of problem

> What is the main reason behind this recent power crisis in Bangladesh? 

> Is corruption and technical system loss are only responsible about this power crisis?

> What should be the role of government to reduce this Power crisis?

4. Methodology:

4.1 Major points:

l   Research type – Exploratory Research

l   Population size – People of  Bangladesh

l   Sample size – 100 People

l   Sampling technique – Multistage Stratified Random                               Sampling

l   Nature of data collection – Primary data

l   Data collection instrument – questionnaire

l   Data processing instrument – SPSS and EXCEL

4.2 Research Method

A descriptive research approach will be used to conduct the study. I will use the survey method and secondary data.

4.3 Sources of Data

      1. Primary Data

      2. Secondary Data

Primary Data: I will collect our primary data to figure out the main reasons and public’s reaction about load shedding and power crisis in Bangladesh by conducting a survey on 100 general people.  To do that survey first i have to prepare some questions and some suitable answers against each question.  Then i have to pretest that questionnaire out side of the sample.

After that I will go out for general people to conduct our survey. The businessmen, shopkeepers, doctors, teachers, retired peoples, servants, housewives and students will be participating in our survey.

Secondary Data: I will collect our primary data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), and from internet. However, bulk of the data will be collected from primary sources.

4.4 Study Area:

As i will conduct the survey within Bangladesh, first i will select five small areas randomly. Then i will select twenty samples from each area for conducting my survey.

4.5 Sample Size:

The Sample Size of my research is 100.

4.6 Sample Selection Procedures:

In sample Selection, i will use Multistage Stratified Random Sampling. That is, i will divide the whole Bangladesh in small areas and select five small areas randomly. i will select residential areas as well as business and trade areas to conduct our research. Then from each of the five areas, i will select twenty people as sample. I will try to involve all types of people as, Businessmen, Jobholder, Household, Students in our survey.

4.7 Instruments to be used:

I will collect data using questionnaire. The questionnaire will first be pretested out side the sample area and then it will be administered in the test area.

5.0. WORK PLAN

This research will be guided by a specific time table to ensure that the data needed to answer the problems and address the objectives of the study will be gathered and collected just in time.

The activities will be done according to the following time period

 

In 1st week: Topic Selection                Secure adviser’s approval Definition of the Problem

 

From 2nd week to 3rd week Development of objectives Reviewing related literature Selection of methodology

                         

From week 4 to week 6 Write the draft of the proposal Select the study sample Prepare interview schedule Do the needed revisions

                                         

 

From week 7 to week 10 Test research tool validity Conduct research Do the assessment techniques Analyze and present gathered data

6.0. Budget

In this research, i the researcher will be responsible for the expected expenditures in conducting this study. My expected expenditures will be as follows in the different activities:

SL. No.	Expenditure purpose	Expenditure amount(BDT )
1.	For doing photocopy of resources researched from different books	1000
2.	For doing the photocopy of the formulated questionnaire	1500
3.	For the print out purpose of the materials for the study	500
4.	The phone bills for arranging interview schedule	1000
5.	Conveyance cost for meeting the respondents	2000
	Expected Total cost	6000

7.0. Limitations :

There were certain limitations regarding the study that is summarized below:

 

• The main hindrance behind preparing this report is time. So, it is not possible to go through in depth within this short span of time.
• Deficiencies in data required for the study. It will not cover most recent data.
• Confidentiality of Data- Information regarding the actual performance and position as it is related to the government’s reputation and financial stability that’s why it is quite hard to go through the information.
• I carried out such a study for the first time, so in experience is one of the main constraints of the study.

8.0. Appendices

Bibliography:

Ø  The daily star

Ø  The daily sun

Ø  www.bpdb.gov.bd

Ø  www.bbs.gov.bd

Ø  The new nation

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